In a new working paper, Benjamin Verschuere and Angus Cameron argue that the wide dispersion in economists' forecasts for the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy stems from two gaps. The first is that estimates for growth, jobs, and prices are each built in isolation, with no single framework to reconcile them. The second is that models fixate on AI’s current capabilities, rather than on how fast it spreads and how much of a given job it can eventually reach. The authors build a unified framework that predicts roughly $2 trillion in long-run output gains, the loss of about 20 million American jobs, and falling prices.

The Supreme Court's decision in Trump v. Slaughter strips independent agencies of removal protections that made regulatory policy predictable across administrations. In new research, Brian Feinstein and Daniel Hemel find that equity markets assign real value to precisely that kind of insulation.

In new research examining 44 million U.S. mortgages and nearly 5,000 bank mergers over three decades, Celso Brunetti, Jeffrey H. Harris, and Ioannis Spyridopoulos find that bank consolidation does not raise mortgage rates, restrict credit access, or degrade loan quality. Local mortgage markets remain intensely competitive. 

The European Union’s draft Merger Guidelines give a central role to dynamic competition in merger review. Some scholars have criticized dynamic competition as an analytical tool that seems to always discourage government intervention, given how quickly and unexpectedly—or dynamically—innovation can remake a market. Nicolas Petit, Selcukhan Unekbas, Bowman Heiden, and Pierre Regibeau argue this critique ignores the several large cases in which regulators used dynamic competition to intervene in a merger.

California’s proposed wealth tax on billionaires will struggle to accurately value and tax the wealth of California’s richest. Rather than fund the state’s massive budgetary commitments, the bill may drive away its largest taxpayers, write Ray Ball and Andrew Sutherland.

The United States healthcare system has experienced an expansion of private equity ownership. In new research, Theodosia Stavroulaki argues that private equity acquisitions risk harming healthcare by increasing prices, reducing quality of care, limiting access to care, and hurting the labor force.