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Option-Based Credit Spreads Signal a Recession, but the US Stimulus Will Soften the Blow

Over the past month, option-based credit spreads spiked and remain at elevated levels. The surge signals that a recession is at our door, but...

Testing People and Targeted Isolation: How to Save More Lives (and the American Economy)

Nobel laureate Paul Romer's model shows that if we use a test to determine who gets put into isolation, the fraction of the population...

A Special Capitalisn’t Episode: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Economic Shutdown

One of the prominent economic debates to emerge during the coronavirus outbreak has been whether to continue with shelter-in-place measures that are hurting the...

From Most No-Brainer to Most Complicated: A List of Policy Proposals to Mitigate the Virus’ Impact

Policymakers need to figure out which sectors we wish to keep up and running (food, health care), which sectors we want to contract rapidly...

This Is Not a Financial Crisis, So Why Should We Bailout Wall Street (Again)?

Republican and Democratic Senators reached a deal on a $2 trillion bill to help businesses and people hit by the coronavirus outbreak. But the...

How to Interpret Financial Market Movements to Predict the Impact of Coronavirus on GDP

Equity markets in the EU and US dropped by as much as 30 percent, which means that investors have revised downward their estimate of...

Why Mass Testing Is Crucial: the US Should Study the Veneto Model to Fight Covid-19

The Italian experience suggests that locking downtowns is a necessary but insufficient condition to stop the spread of the disease. If 50 percent of...

Bethany McLean’s Weekend Reading List: the Pandemic’s Long-Term Consequences

Corruption, lobbying, corporate malfeasance, and frauds: a weekly unconventional selection of must-read articles by investigative journalist Bethany McLean.      Of course, this weekend's list is mostly...

The ECB Can Save the Italian Economy and Prevent a New Euro Crisis Triggered by Covid-19 Fallout

The Italian government's effort to contain the coronavirus will have significant economic consequences. Italy should be allowed to ask for emergency help with one...

Governments and Central Banks Have a Few Unpleasant Options to Stop the Economic Contagion

The global economy and financial markets are seriously hit by the coronavirus outbreak. Central banks can do something, but monetary policy is not enough.  A fiscal stimulus might mitigate the impact, but the record-level outstanding amount of public and private debt adds additional risk to the current perfect storm.  

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