International Economics

The global economy is in the early stages of a second China shock as the Chinese economy moves up the manufacturing value chain to produce advanced technology for export. China’s advantage lies in government subsidies and an artificially suppressed exchange rate. If advanced economies in the West are to avoid the repetition of job loss and continued trade deficits witnessed over the last two decades, or the pyrrhic policies like tariffs implemented to address these harms, they must pursue institutional change, writes Joshua Banerjee.

In new research, Michele Fioretti and Alessandro Iaria discuss how a landmark Norwegian court ruling shows how constitutional constraints on the government’s ability to retroactively change contracts can encourage private innovation and reshape entire industries.

In new research, Jongkwan Lee, Giovanni Peri, and Hee-Seung Yang assess the effects of a sudden reduction in immigrant workers in South Korea. They find that migrant workers were not easily replaceable by natives, resulting in operational disruptions and firm closures.

Trade wars between the United States and Canada have sharply reduced the number of Canadian tourists traveling to the U.S. In new research, André Kurmann, Étienne Lalé, and Julien Martin use novel methods to measure how this decline in tourism has negatively impacted American workers and communities.

The green transition is faltering in both advanced and developing economies. While politics and market risk is stalling private investment in clean energy in advanced economies, an imbalanced global value chain is preventing investment in clean energy in developing countries, write Piergiuseppe Fortunato and Verena Hitner Barros.

Chinese automotive manufacturers gain a competitive edge through laxer rules governing personal data protection and intellectual property. Oscar Borgogno and Giovanni Veronese argue that ensuring effective compliance with European law could help European manufacturers re-establish a level playing field while upholding EU constitutional values.

In new research, Yoan Hermstrüwer and David Imhof analyze how AI can help antitrust authorities predict cartels by assessing international bidding data in countries with similar legal and market structures.

In new research, Janka Deli analyzes the relationship between the decline in the rule of law and trade. Contrary to democratic and developmental theory, she finds that declines in the rule of law, as seen in Hungary, Poland, and Czechia, do not lead to systematic reductions in trade with other EU partners.  

In new research, Daniel Lobo and Ryan Brutger theorize that American concepts of fairness are shaped by race and lived experiences. In a national survey experiment, they confirm that white and Black Americans view differently what constitutes “fair” trade policy.

The following is an excerpt from “The Doom Loop: Why the World Economic Order Is Spiraling into Disorder" by Eswar Prasad," now out at Hachette Book Group.