Articles by Niels J. Gormsen and Ralph S.J. Koijen :

How to Interpret Financial Market Movements to Predict the Impact of Coronavirus on GDP

Equity markets in the EU and US dropped by as much as 30 percent, which means that investors have revised downward their estimate of future profits by as much as 30 percent. This leads to an estimate that GDP growth over the next year will be down by 2.6 percent in both the US and the EU. However, investors expect the current crisis to be shorter than the 2008 global financial meltdown. 

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