In February, the Federal Trade Commission settled with pharmaceutical benefits manager (PBM) Express Scripts. The FTC had sued Express Scripts and two other large PBMs under the long dormant Section 5 of the FTC Act, which targets “unfair methods of competition.” The settlement suggests that the FTC may succeed in addressing the convoluted contracts between PBMs, drug manufacturers, health insurers, and employers that drive up drug prices for Americans. It also opens unchartered territory for antitrust enforcement and the limits of Section 5, argue Fiona Scott Morton and Mariah Smith.

COMMENTARY

How a 2016 Accounting Rule Fueled Big Tech’s Investments in AI Startups

An accounting rule introduced by the Financial Accounting Standards Board in 2016 was designed to address a flaw in the previous regime that contributed to the 2008 Financial Crisis. However, this same rule is enabling the circuit of investments that flows from Big Tech companies to artificial intelligence startups, whose increased valuation from these investments increases the value of the Big Tech companies, which they can then reinvest in the AI startups. The risk is an AI bubble that, if it pops, will also blow up Americans’ savings, writes Hera Hyeonseo Lee.

RESEARCH

More AI-Exposed Industries and States Are Benefiting, But Results Are Heterogenous

In new research, Christos Makridis and Andrew Johnston find that industries exposed to generative AI are seeing an increase in production, employment, and wages. However, the majority of AI-driven revenue growth is channelled back to capital as profits, rather than to workers.
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The Case for Public Factories

In new research, Joel Dodge and Ganesh Sitaraman argue that a comprehensive industrial policy to secure American supply chains and ensure access to essential goods should incorporate the deployment of public factories.

If Elon Musk Wants To Compete With Anthropic, He Should Build Rather Than Buy

Artificial intelligence coding agents provide enormous value to consumers for very low fees. But the market is quickly shrinking with Anthropic in the lead. Only competition, and requiring Big Tech to build agents rather than buy them, will continue to let AI’s value flow to consumers. As such, the courts should ban SpaceX’s recently proposed acquisition of Cursor, writes Ketan Ahuja.

Innovation Suffers When Governments Can Alter Their Contracts

In new research, Michele Fioretti and Alessandro Iaria discuss how a landmark Norwegian court ruling shows how constitutional constraints on the government’s ability to retroactively change contracts can encourage private innovation and reshape entire industries.

Large Donors’ Networks Matter More Than Their Dollar Contributions

In new research, Marco Battaglini, Valerio Leone Sciabolazza, Mengwei Lin and Eleonora Patacchini study how the deaths of large donors change candidates’ electoral results and congressional activity in a new measure of donors’ influence in American politics.

The TikTok Ban Was a Model for Digital Competition Policy

Victor Jiawei Zhang revisits the 2025 United States ban on TikTok and explores how it represented a case study of how the government led users to act collectively to override network effects and introduce competition to the digital market. The case study highlights research from his new article, “Digital Antitrust Collectivism,” where he explores the possibility that users’ collective power can invigorate digital market competition.

READING LISTS

Americans spend significantly more on health care than any other country. Why? Answers to this question range from hospital monopolies to perverse incentives to opaque pricing to medical licensing to pharmaceutical firms abusing IP practices to “creeping consolidation.” Why is the US health care system so broken? And what can antirust do about it? Catch-up on our coverage of antitrust and the US health care system.

How Competition Has Increased Fraud in Medicare’s DME Program

In new research, Renuka Diwan, Paul Eliason, Riley League, Ryan C. McDevitt, James W. Roberts, and Jetson Leder-Luis investigate how Medicare’s shift to a competitive bidding system to reduce prices has inadvertently shifted market share to fraudulent suppliers.

Do Pharmaceutical Acquisitions Undermine Innovation by Disrupting Human Capital?

Antitrust authorities increasingly assess mergers through the lens of innovation, particularly in research-intensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals. In new research, Carmine Ornaghi and Lorenzo Cassi show how mergers disrupt human capital and reduce innovation in what they call manslaughter acquisitions.

Common Ownership May Reduce the Entry of Cheaper Generic Drugs

In new research, Martin Schmalz and Jin Xie examine how shareholder preferences influence the United States pharmaceutical industry. They find that generic-drug manufacturers sometimes harm their firms’ own value when doing so benefits shareholder portfolios, who frequently have stakes in competing brand-name firms.

Novo Nordisk’s Offer To Acquire Metsera Constitutes Attempted Monopolization

Hannah Pittock uses weight-loss company Novo Nordisk’s offer to acquire Metsera to create a three-prong framework by which the antitrust agencies can identify when an invitation to exclude a rival from a market constitutes illegal exclusionary conduct under Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

George J. Stigler, one of the most influential economists of the 20th century, won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 1982 “for his seminal studies of industrial structures, functioning of markets, and causes and effects of public regulation.” His research upended the idea that government regulation was effective at correcting private-market failures. Stigler introduced the idea of regulatory capture, in which regulators could be dominated by special interests. These regulators would work for the benefit of large, monied organizations rather than the public good. Catch up on ProMarket's coverage of his legacy.

If Markets Can Reprice for Hormuz, They Can Reprice for Paris

The recent, blustery movements in oil prices in response to the United States’ war with Iran illustrate the financial market’s agile ability to reprice for a predicted future market. Yet, a decade after 195 nations adopted the Paris Agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, the market has made no changes in response. Part of this may be due to investors’ expectations of a delayed rollout, but the inertia is also due to flawed market design in which laws of fiduciary duty prevent funds from providing investors with vehicles that can make true bets on how soon the world will retire fossil fuels, writes Michael A. Santoro.

Your 401(k) Is Propping Up the AI Bubble

Americans’ retirement savings are disproportionately tied to the dozen Big Tech firms that now dominate the S&P. This makes any intervention into regulating Big Tech that risks devaluing them politically difficult, writes Hera Hyeonseo Lee.

Consumers Prefer AI Music Until They’re Told It’s AI

Across three studies, Jana Friedrichsen, Julia Schwarz, and Michel Clement explore how generative AI will change the music industry. They find that while consumers enjoy and even prefer AI-generated music, preferences shift upon learning that the song was AI-generated.

How America Can Put Data Centers in Service of Reindustrialization

American communities have begun to reject the construction of local data centers out of concern that they drive up electricity prices without returning durable and diversified job and other economic benefits. Jake Higdon writes that governments concerned about these risks should not only insulate consumers from higher prices, but also demand that data center investments be used to power reindustrialization efforts.

The Economy Ruined American College Grads’ Prospects. They Fought Back

Matt Lucky reviews Noam Schieber’s Mutiny: The Rise and Revolt of the College-Educated Working Class, now out at Macmillan.

AI Is Coming for the Economic Consulting Industry

Artificial intelligence will change the market for economic consultants, likely reducing overall demand and shifting workers to current clients’ in-house units. However, both consulting firms and clients are still studying how to deploy AI, and there may yet be new opportunities for consultants as AI changes the broader economy, write Mona Birjandi and Mery Zadeh.

A Merger Between United and American Airlines Is Likely To Substantially Lessen Competition

Ratib Ali analyzes whether a merger between United and American Airlines would pass merger review according to the 2023 Merger Guidelines and finds that under multiple market definitions, it would substantially lessen competition.

COLUMNS

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