In new research examining 44 million U.S. mortgages and nearly 5,000 bank mergers over three decades, Celso Brunetti, Jeffrey H. Harris, and Ioannis Spyridopoulos find that bank consolidation does not raise mortgage rates, restrict credit access, or degrade loan quality. Local mortgage markets remain intensely competitive. 

COMMENTARY

The Proposed California Billionaire Wealth Tax Produces Inequities and Adverse Incentives

California’s proposed wealth tax on billionaires will struggle to accurately value and tax the wealth of California’s richest. Rather than fund the state’s massive budgetary commitments, the bill may drive away its largest taxpayers, write Ray Ball and Andrew Sutherland.

RESEARCH

Rule of Law Backsliding May Not Hurt Trade—And Why That’s a Problem

In new research, Janka Deli analyzes the relationship between the decline in the rule of law and trade. Contrary to democratic and developmental theory, she finds that declines in the rule of law, as seen in Hungary, Poland, and Czechia, do not lead to systematic reductions in trade with other EU partners.  
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South Africa Shows How the EU Merger Guidelines Can Account for Non-Economic Factors

The draft EU Merger Guidelines open merger analysis to non-economic considerations, including choice, supply chain resilience, and sustainability. However, they do not yet explain how these considerations will be paired with a traditional consumer welfare analysis of price and quantity. Maciej Bernatt and Simbarashe Tavuyanago look to South Africa to devise a “vulnerable consumer test” that can help bridge these economic and non-economic goals.

Pharma’s AI Boom Has Bet on the Wrong Bottleneck

Investors have poured billions into using artificial intelligence to discover new drugs, and 2026 is the first real test of whether AI-designed medicines actually helps patients. The boom has genuinely transformed the search for molecules — but that was never the costly, failure-prone part of making a medicine, and there AI has so far had little to add. Capital, and the public subsidies have not yet priced the difference, writes Michael A. Santoro.

Satya Nadella’s AI Warning Is a Sales Pitch

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella’s argument that businesses need to be able to easily switch between artificial intelligence models is correct but elides the fact,...

When is Corporate Bribery a Good Investment?

In new research, Vishavdeep Sharma and Krishnendu Ghosh Dastidar analyze corporate corruption through the lens of market competition. Firms often bribe officials to block rivals from entering their markets, and their incentive to do so depends less on how competitive a market is than on what kind of competition it has.

The EU’s Merger Guidelines Risk Undermining Their Own Progress

The European Union’s draft Merger Guidelines strengthen competition enforcement by acknowledging the potential harms of market concentration to society, including worker bargaining power and more vulnerable democratic institutions. However, Max von Thun and Claire Lavin argue that this progress is undermined by the introduction of a bias for scale and efficiency loopholes, which give large corporations more paths to complete a merger.

READING LISTS

Americans spend significantly more on health care than any other country. Why? Answers to this question range from hospital monopolies to perverse incentives to opaque pricing to medical licensing to pharmaceutical firms abusing IP practices to “creeping consolidation.” Why is the US health care system so broken? And what can antirust do about it? Catch-up on our coverage of antitrust and the US health care system.

The Pharmaceutical Benefits Manager Settlements Are a Novel Advance for the FTC and Competition Enforcement

In February, the Federal Trade Commission settled with pharmaceutical benefits manager (PBM) Express Scripts. The FTC had sued Express Scripts and two other large PBMs under the long dormant Section 5 of the FTC Act, which targets “unfair methods of competition.” The settlement suggests that the FTC may succeed in addressing the convoluted contracts between PBMs, drug manufacturers, health insurers, and employers that drive up drug prices for Americans. It also opens unchartered territory for antitrust enforcement and the limits of Section 5, argue Fiona Scott Morton and Mariah Smith.

How Competition Has Increased Fraud in Medicare’s DME Program

In new research, Renuka Diwan, Paul Eliason, Riley League, Ryan C. McDevitt, James W. Roberts, and Jetson Leder-Luis investigate how Medicare’s shift to a competitive bidding system to reduce prices has inadvertently shifted market share to fraudulent suppliers.

Do Pharmaceutical Acquisitions Undermine Innovation by Disrupting Human Capital?

Antitrust authorities increasingly assess mergers through the lens of innovation, particularly in research-intensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals. In new research, Carmine Ornaghi and Lorenzo Cassi show how mergers disrupt human capital and reduce innovation in what they call manslaughter acquisitions.

Common Ownership May Reduce the Entry of Cheaper Generic Drugs

In new research, Martin Schmalz and Jin Xie examine how shareholder preferences influence the United States pharmaceutical industry. They find that generic-drug manufacturers sometimes harm their firms’ own value when doing so benefits shareholder portfolios, who frequently have stakes in competing brand-name firms.

George J. Stigler, one of the most influential economists of the 20th century, won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 1982 “for his seminal studies of industrial structures, functioning of markets, and causes and effects of public regulation.” His research upended the idea that government regulation was effective at correcting private-market failures. Stigler introduced the idea of regulatory capture, in which regulators could be dominated by special interests. These regulators would work for the benefit of large, monied organizations rather than the public good. Catch up on ProMarket's coverage of his legacy.

The EPA’s EJScreen Shows How Data Transparency Can Enable Civil Society

In new research, Grace Fan, Trung Nguyen, and Xi Wu show how improvements in government data transparency and disclosure through the public rollout of the Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Justice Screening and Mapping Tool enabled civil society to identify and hold polluters responsible and improve overall environmental justice.

Why Climate Uncertainty Is Not an Argument Against Capital Reallocation

Finbar Curtin and Matthew Burgess’ recent article analyzing the relationship between the climate and economy has been interpreted as a study proving that climate change’s impact on economic growth is weak. Garvin Jabusch argues that this interpretation is wrong. Rather, the article concludes that statistical estimates of this relationship are limited by data and future capital allocation should favor a ‘no-regrets’ approach anchored in observable cost curves and productive capacity.

When Mergers Break the Workplace     

In new research, Wei Cai, Andrea Prat, and Jiehang Yu evaluate how mergers affect employee satisfaction. They find that acquired firms report a decline in worker satisfaction, primarily revolving around “soft” benefits, such as workplace culture, management quality, and trust.

AI’s Tying Arrangements Jeopardize the Market

The competitiveness of the artificial intelligence market at first glance masks how investment arrangements and partnerships between the largest players risks undermining their incentives to compete. Regulators must continue to monitor these arrangements for anticompetitive effects, writes Shishene Jing.

Henry Simons’s Positive Program for Laissez-Faire

The 1930s were a difficult time for classical liberals. In response to the Great Depression, the federal government undertook a massive expansion of its role in the economy. Henry Simons was passionate in his view that a new defense of liberal principles was necessary. In so doing, he outlined a positive “laissez-faire” agenda. Editor's Note: This article was originally published on June 20, 2021. We are republshing it to mark the 80th anniversary of Simons' death. Editor’s note: The current debate...

How Well Do Divestiture Remedies Work for Supermarket Mergers?

In new research, Xiao Dong, Paul Koh, Devesh Raval, Dominic Smith, and Brett Wendling evaluate how well divestiture remedies work for mergers in the supermarket industry. They find that past supermarket divestitures lead to lower employment, reduced sales, and higher rates of exit from the market relative to comparable non-divested supermarkets.  

AI Is Not Reducing Employment but Rather Who Gets Hired

In a new working paper, Magnus Lodefalk, Lydia Löthman, Michael Koch, and Erik Engberg examine how generative AI is reshaping the labor market. They find little evidence that AI has cut the total number of jobs, but show that it has slowed hiring for the youngest workers, especially in the AI-exposed occupations where young women are concentrated. Over time, AI’s effect on entry-level roles risks thinning the next generation’s ability to build the skills and networks that careers are made of. 

COLUMNS

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